Monthly Manager Commentary: June 2025

Multi-Strategy Fund Performance

The fund declined by 0.1% in June amid choppy market conditions and heightened downside volatility in altcoins. A pronounced rotation out of altcoins—highlighted by Ethereum falling -5% and Solana -7%—underscored the value of our defensive positioning and active risk management, which helped preserve capital during a challenging environment. Our disciplined approach, centered on prudent position sizing and dynamic hedging, allowed us to navigate the month’s dislocations while retaining the flexibility to re-enter high-conviction opportunities. Looking ahead, we are increasingly optimistic about the second half of the year, as improving regulatory clarity, expanding global liquidity, and strengthening onchain fundamentals lay the groundwork for a more supportive backdrop for digital assets.

	Multi-Strategy Fund	Bitcoin
June Gross Performance	-0.1%	2.4%

Engineering Insights and Updates

This month, we’ve made meaningful progress across key areas of research and modeling, aimed at further optimizing our investment strategies. Notably, our breakout momentum model has been enhanced through improved cross-validation schemes that adapt dynamically to shifting market trends. The refined framework integrates advanced trailing stop logic and signal crossover techniques, allowing for more precise entries and exits—enhancing both risk control and profit potential in volatile environments.

On the meta-modeling side, we’ve advanced the development of systems that select the best-performing strategies in real time using machine learning classification methods. The architecture now incorporates rolling state representations and a reward framework to evaluate performance across market regimes. Hyperparameter optimization is conducted via Optuna (hyperparameter optimization framework to automate hyperparameter search) and tracked in Neptune (experiment tracker for foundation models), enabling real-time monitoring, visualization, and reproducibility of our research. Importantly, this infrastructure supports multi-objective optimization, allowing us to compose multiple strategies into a unified portfolio construct. These aggregated signals and weights produce a more resilient and adaptive investment approach, moving beyond single-model dependencies to a more robust, ensemble-based decision process.

Market Commentary

June was marked by heightened geopolitical tensions and a spike in volatility across global markets. On Saturday, June 21, bitcoin briefly fell to $99,000 following reports of a U.S. airstrike on Iran, momentarily testing key technical support just above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $98,200. As the world’s most liquid, 24/7-traded asset, bitcoin continues to be among the first to react to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. However, its swift rebound to $107,000 in the days that followed—driven by signs of de-escalation—underscored a growing and important narrative: bitcoin is maturing into a resilient macro asset.

This price action fits within a broader consolidation range between $100,000 and $110,000 that has held since early May. This range-bound behavior suggests a stabilizing market dynamic increasingly underpinned by investor confidence. Notably, Bitcoin ETFs recorded ten consecutive days of inflows as June drew to a close. While not record-setting in size, the consistency is meaningful—it reflects a durable bid from institutional investors who appear unshaken by short-term volatility or geopolitical risk. This steady accumulation highlights bitcoin’s evolving role in diversified portfolios, particularly as a hedge against macro uncertainty and fiat currency debasement.

From a macro perspective, the environment remains supportive of our crypto investment thesis at the start of the year. Geopolitical shocks have traditionally led to liquidity-boosting measures, such as higher government spending and dovish central bank policies. Year-to-date, global M2 money supply has expanded by nearly 6%, now totaling $99.8 trillion. This rising liquidity environment serves as a tailwind for scarce assets, and bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million, remains uniquely positioned as a long-term store of value. In an era defined by monetary expansion and growing sovereign risk, bitcoin’s decentralized and predictable monetary policy becomes increasingly strategic for capital preservation.

On-chain data further reinforces this constructive outlook. Over 14.5 million BTC—roughly 70% of circulating supply—is now held by entities who haven’t moved their coins in six months or more. This accumulation behavior among long-term holders reduces available supply, dampens volatility, and reflects a maturing investor base focused on long-term value creation over short-term speculation.

Corporate participation in crypto markets also continues to gain momentum. While still early-stage, the trend of corporate treasury allocations to digital assets introduces a new and potentially significant source of demand. However, it also highlights the importance of prudent risk management, especially as more firms begin to explore digital asset exposure. Nonetheless, this development reflects a broader institutional embrace of crypto as a balance sheet asset.

Regulatory progress remains another key theme. Several significant bills—including those addressing stablecoin oversight and broader crypto market structure—are currently under Congressional review. At the same time, the SEC is evaluating a growing number of ETF applications covering cryptoassets beyond bitcoin and Ethereum. Clarifications on issues such as in-kind redemptions, staking, and broader eligibility criteria could serve as meaningful catalysts for further institutional adoption.

In summary, June was a clear demonstration of the dual nature of the crypto market: inherently volatile, yet increasingly resilient. Bitcoin’s rapid recovery, continued institutional inflows, and strengthening on-chain fundamentals reflect a maturing asset class shaped more by structural demand than speculative hype. As we move into the second half of the year, we remain focused on key drivers including regulatory developments, capital flows, and global liquidity trends—all of which will play a critical role in shaping crypto’s trajectory through year-end.

Sincerely,

The Blockforce Team

Disclaimer:  This is not investment advice. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. 

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