Monthly Manager Commentary: November 2025

Multi-Strategy Fund Performance

November proved to be the worst November for crypto markets since 2018, with declines exceeding even those observed during the FTX collapse in November 2022. Our algorithmic strategies, largely positioned short, helped partially offset downside risk. By mid-month, key market indicators suggested that prices were approaching meaningful value zones. In response, we began selectively increasing exposure, employing a disciplined dollar-cost averaging approach into core positions at discounted levels. While this tactical repositioning modestly weighed on near-term performance, it positions the fund to capture long-term value as markets stabilize. We continue to view the current environment as offering compelling opportunities for disciplined accumulation, balancing careful risk management with selective, high-conviction exposure.

	Multi-Strategy Fund	Bitcoin
November Gross Performance	-25.0%	-17.5%

Market Commentary

November marked the continuation—and quite possibly the culmination—of the deleveraging cycle that began in early October. The result was the worst month of November for the crypto markets since 2018. Bitcoin, which traded above $125,000 in early October, fell to lows near $80,000, a peak-to-trough decline of roughly 36%. The corresponding $700 billion contraction in market capitalization erased all year-to-date gains and reset positioning across virtually every segment of the crypto ecosystem. Importantly, the drawdown had no single catalyst; instead, it stemmed from a convergence of macro uncertainty, structural flows, and the lingering aftershocks of October’s liquidation cascade.

The month opened with markets still digesting October’s tariff scare, which had unsettled global risk appetite. Early in November, the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish tone, lowering expectations for a December rate cut and reinforcing the broader risk-off sentiment across equities, credit, and digital assets. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown tightened liquidity as the Treasury General Account rebuilt, draining reserves from the financial system. Although the mid-month resolution of the shutdown briefly lifted sentiment, the improvement proved fleeting: crypto markets soon resumed selling pressure, suggesting investors were using strength to de-risk rather than re-enter. With macro signals skewing hawkish, liquidity constrained, and equities—especially AI-linked technology names—showing weakness, digital assets struggled to establish durable support.

This caution was most visible through the ETF channel. For the first time since Q1, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded sustained net outflows, with approximately $3.8 billion leaving U.S. products in November—the largest monthly redemption on record. Single-day outflows reached as high as $523 million from BlackRock’s IBIT, highlighting how ETF flows, historically a stabilizing force, had shifted into a meaningful headwind.

Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), which had acted as a steady structural accumulator throughout 2024 and much of 2025, also began to show signs of strain. As prices declined, the value of their equity and token holdings compressed, eroding their premium to NAV that had enabled new share issuance and balance-sheet expansion. Larger vehicles such as Strategy remain comfortably above their cost basis, but smaller and newer DATs have become more constrained, limiting their ability to add to positions at prior rates. The softening of this structural demand, combined with ETF outflows, removed two of the ecosystem’s most important stabilizers and contributed to the breadth of the November drawdown.

While the correction felt severe, it remains consistent with historical patterns. Over the past two years, bitcoin has experienced three separate 30%+ drawdowns, each of which ultimately gave way to strong recoveries. In every instance, bitcoin rebounded to new all-time highs within six months, underscoring the asset’s resilience even in periods of sharp volatility. From this perspective, the current pullback appears in line with prior cycles and, in our view, presents attractive value for long-term investors.

There are also indications that markets may be at—or near—a bottom, as buying support has begun to re-emerge. After notable outflows for most of the month, ETF flows turned positive in the final week of November. Importantly, aggregate ETF holdings remain near all-time highs; IBIT alone continues to hold roughly 780,000 BTC. Large on-chain wallets (“whales”) have accelerated accumulation, and long-term institutional investors—including major university endowments and sovereign wealth funds—have significantly increased their positions. This behavior signals renewed confidence from sophisticated investors positioning for the next phase of the cycle.

The macro backdrop further reinforces the case for stabilization. Global M2 money supply continues to reach record levels, while major economies such as China and Japan are preparing substantial stimulus programs. In the U.S., liquidity is poised to re-enter the system as the Treasury General Account is drawn down, formal quantitative tightening ends on December 1, and the Federal Reserve has shifted its rhetoric to indicate a December rate cut is now more likely than not. Market leverage has reset, speculative excess has been flushed out, and positioning across both spot and derivatives markets is more neutral—creating a healthier foundation going forward.

Taken together, these developments suggest that the current correction is likely near its low point and that 2026 may offer the most constructive liquidity environment for risk assets—including crypto—since 2020.

Sincerely,

The Blockforce Team

Disclaimer:  This is not investment advice. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. 

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