By Brett Munster
Will the regulatory climate change after Trump’s term?
The political and regulatory landscape for the crypto industry has undergone a dramatic transformation since the start of the year. Just a year ago, the industry faced a deeply hostile regulatory environment marked by enforcement crackdowns, legal uncertainty, and minimal dialogue with policymakers. SEC Chair Gary Gensler was aggressively pursuing enforcement actions against major crypto players; SAB 121 effectively barred banks from holding digital assets; and DeFi protocols faced legal persecution from the DOJ. The FDIC had shut down the two most crypto-friendly banks and warned all other institutions against engaging with the industry, resulting in widespread debanking. Congressional resistance was fierce, with figures like Senator Sherrod Brown blocking bipartisan efforts and Senator Elizabeth Warren rallying an “anti-crypto army.” On top of that, the administration sanctioned privacy-preserving tools, floated a punitive 30% tax on mining, and repeatedly framed crypto as a systemic financial threat.
Fast forward to today, and that landscape has been all but reversed. The shift began with the 2024 election, which ushered in a Congress where over 60% of members are now openly pro-crypto. Shortly thereafter, the president issued Executive Order 14178, repealing prior restrictions and tasking federal agencies with developing a comprehensive framework for digital assets. A second executive order in March established a strategic national bitcoin reserve—another first in U.S. policy history. Most recently, the White House released a report declaring the dawn of a “golden age of crypto,” positioning blockchain innovation as a key driver of future economic growth and national competitiveness. At the same time, the President signed further executive orders prohibiting banks from denying services to crypto companies and directing the Labor Department to allow cryptoassets in 401(k) plans.
Regulatory leadership has also changed dramatically. Gensler stepped down, replaced by Paul Atkins, a long-time crypto advocate, and under his leadership, the SEC has launched “Project Crypto,” a sweeping initiative to modernize securities regulations for digital assets and provide clearer guidance for token issuers and exchanges. The OCC and FDIC appointed new leadership aligned with a more innovation-friendly approach. Agencies rescinded SAB 121 and other restrictive guidance, allowing banks and broker-dealers to reengage with the crypto sector. The DOJ dropped its case against Tornado Cash and Samurai Wallet after a federal appeals court deemed the original sanctions an overreach, marking a major legal victory for privacy in crypto.
Legislative momentum followed. In July, Congress passed the GENIUS Act, the first standalone federal law establishing clear rules for stablecoins. The House also advanced the CLARITY Act, which lays the groundwork for a comprehensive digital asset market structure, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act was attached to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). These legislative actions signal an irreversible trend toward embracing crypto as a permanent fixture of the U.S. financial system.
The market response has been emphatic. The global crypto market recently surpassed $4 trillion for the first time, bitcoin reached all-time highs, and Ethereum rallied nearly 50% in July amid clarity on spot and derivatives markets. Retail, institutional, and nation-state adoption is growing in tandem, reinforcing the view that crypto is no longer a fringe interest—it’s a core part of modern finance.
This raises an important question: Could a future administration reverse the progress we’ve seen? It’s a valid concern, but the answer is a clear no—for several compelling reasons.
First, much of the change is no longer just regulatory or executive in nature; it’s statutory. Laws like the GENIUS Act cannot easily be undone by a new administration. More legislation is likely on the way before the end of this presidential term—covering market structure, anti-CBDC provisions, tax treatment, and possibly enshrining the bitcoin reserve into law. These are structural changes that would require congressional action to repeal, making reversal far more difficult than undoing a set of executive orders.
Second, crypto adoption is reaching a critical mass. Today, an estimated 50–60 million Americans hold crypto. By 2028, it’s possible that number could exceed 100 million—nearly a third of the population. Candidates who campaign on anti-crypto platforms risk alienating tens of millions of constituents whose portfolios include bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets. In this context, opposing crypto is not just bad policy—it’s bad politics.
Third, the industry now commands substantial political influence. In 2024, the Fairshake PAC focused exclusively on congressional races and achieved an extraordinary success rate, winning 53 of the 58 races it supported. It has already raised $141 million ahead of the 2026 midterms. This level of financial backing ensures that crypto-friendly candidates have the resources to run competitive campaigns—and that anti-crypto lawmakers will face serious electoral challenges. The PAC’s bipartisan approach has also helped bring more Democrats into the fold, further entrenching crypto as a mainstream, cross-party issue.
Here’s the bottom line: crypto is no longer just a technological movement—it’s a political and economic force. The combination of codified law, mass voter adoption, and growing political influence means the U.S. crypto policy framework is now structurally durable. No future administration, regardless of party, will be able to revert to the adversarial stance of the past. What we’re witnessing is not just a cyclical upswing—it’s the institutionalization of crypto within American finance and politics. The foundation is set, and it’s not going anywhere.
Bitcoin passes a major liquidity test
In the early hours between July 3 and July 4, while most Americans were dreaming of barbecues and fireworks, something far more explosive ignited on the blockchain. More than 80,000 dormant bitcoins—untouched since 2011, when BTC traded around $2—suddenly sprang to life. That initial investment of just under $200,000 had ballooned to over $9 billion. But this wasn’t merely a case of early adopters cashing out. The sheer scale of the transfer made it a milestone moment, drawing intense scrutiny from both the crypto world and traditional finance.
It’s not entirely unprecedented for ancient bitcoin to wake up—early adopters often take profits after long holds. But what set this apart was the sheer scale—this transaction dwarfs every other dormant-wallet movement in bitcoin history.
To put it in perspective: a single holder, with wealth rivaling that of the world’s 400 richest individuals, moved an entire fortune across the blockchain—quietly, in the dead of night, and during a U.S. holiday while every bank was closed.
Naturally, the move ignited rampant speculation throughout the crypto community about who owned the coins and why they were now being moved. What is known is that the entire stash was transferred to Galaxy Digital, which then conducted what it proudly termed “one of the largest notional bitcoin transactions in the history of crypto, on behalf of a client”—a strategic part of the seller’s estate planning.
Surprisingly, despite $9 billion flooding into the market in just a matter of days, bitcoin’s price barely budged. A mild dip of 3–4% was quickly reversed—bitcoin recovered within hours. To put that in context, a few years ago such a sale would likely have triggered panic; today the market absorbed it with barely a blip.
This moment could prove to be a major turning point for institutional adoption. For years, pension funds, sovereign wealth managers, insurers, and endowments have leaned on liquidity as a common excuse—sorry, “concern”—for avoiding crypto. But this sale proved that large-scale bitcoin transactions can be executed without crashing the market, highlighting a level of maturity and depth to support multi‑billion‑dollar trades in real time.
Moving tens of thousands of BTC without spiking volatility clears a key hurdle. If institutions can reliably buy and sell at scale, allocation decisions get a lot easier—and that opens the door for serious capital to flow in from traditional finance.
With this massive transfer and sale now complete, the message to the broader financial world is clear: bitcoin has matured. The ability to execute a $9 billion transaction without disrupting the market proves the asset class now has the liquidity and infrastructure to support institutional-scale moves. For large allocators—whether pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, or endowments—this removes a major barrier to entry. They no longer have to wonder if the market can handle their size; it just did. While the identity of the seller remains a mystery, their impact is undeniable: they didn’t just cash out—they helped validate bitcoin as a credible, scalable asset for the world’s largest investors.
In Other News
JPMorgan explores crypto-backed loans.
Senate Republicans unveil crypto market structure draft bill.
BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF rockets to $10B, third-fastest in history.
SEC approves in‑kind redemptions for bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
Senator Lummis introduces bill to greenlight crypto for mortgages.
White House group outlines roadmap for “golden age of crypto.”
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins announced “Project Crypto” to modernize securities rules for crypto assets.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Opinions expressed are solely my own and do not express the views or opinions of Blockforce Capital.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Opinions expressed are solely my own and do not express the views or opinions of Blockforce Capital or Onramp Invest.
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